Crafted Studio · Vestic growth report
How Vestic is doing — 1 Oct 2026
First fair Meta test (US, iOS 14+ campaign) after 6 days. Sources: Meta Ads Manager (live, campaign “Vestic US – iOS14+ – Installs – 2609”), RevenueCat (project Vestic), App Store pricing. Oct 1 is a partial day.
Bottom line: Meta now delivers installs cheaply (€0.56 per install, 3–10× cheaper than our earlier tests). The bottleneck is no longer ads — it’s install → trial (~5%). At ~€10 per trial start we need ≥35–43% of trials to convert to break even in year one. The first campaign trials end Oct 3–7; v1.0.10 (the funnel fix) is only 2 days old. Hold spend at €20/day until ~Oct 7, don’t scale yet.
184
Installs (Meta-reported)
€0.56 per install
206
New US users (RevenueCat)
vs ~1–2/day before ads
10
Trial / paid starts
9 free trials + 1 $0.99 intro
4.9%
Install → trial
target ≥ 8%
€10.2
Cost per trial start
2 of 9 trials already cancelled
Ads are working: installs every day, cost falling
Which ad is winning
| Ad | Spend | Installs | Cost / install | Status |
|---|
| Lamp $55 (old best) | €82.85 | 157 | €0.53 | Meta puts 81% of budget here |
| V1 decanter $5 | €11.89 | 17 | €0.70 | Active |
| V3 crock $13 | €7.60 | 10 | €0.76 | Active |
| AntiqSnap-format v4 (new) | — | — | — | In Meta review since Oct 1 |
Where users drop
- Ads → install is healthy. €0.53–0.76 per US iOS install is excellent for a utility app (our breakeven CPI estimate was €0.83–1.85).
- Install → trial is the leak. ~1 in 20 new users starts a trial. AntiqSnap-style apps typically land 8–12%. v1.0.10 (1 free appraisal, paywall right after the result, honest trial door) shipped Sep 29 12:27 CEST — most users are still on the older build, so its effect isn’t measurable yet (Sep 26–28: 4.3%; Sep 29–Oct 1: ~4.4–5.3%).
- Trial → paid is unknown yet. Campaign trials started Sep 27+ (7-day trials) end Oct 3–7. Early signal: 2 of the 4 earliest campaign trials were cancelled within a day; pre-campaign trials converted 3 of the last 4 that ended.
Unit economics — when do ads pay back?
| Yearly plan (US) | $39.99 |
|---|
| We keep (Apple 30% — today) | $27.99 |
|---|
| We keep (Small Business Program 15%) | $33.99 |
|---|
| Cost per trial start now | ≈ $12 |
|---|
| Break-even trial → paid (no SBP) | 43% |
|---|
| Break-even trial → paid (with SBP) | 35% |
|---|
| If install→trial reaches 8% | ≈ $7.4 / trial → break-even 22–27% |
|---|
Translation: at today’s funnel we’re roughly break-even only if trials convert unusually well. Fixing install→trial from 5% to 8% (or enrolling in Apple’s Small Business Program) turns the same ad spend profitable on year-one revenue alone.
Revenue so far
RevenueCat, last 28 days: $95 revenue, 6 active subscriptions, 10 active trials, MRR $14. A trial from Sep 22 converted to $39.99 on Sep 29. (RevenueCat under-counts: it was connected Sep 8 — App Store Connect sales are the source of truth.)
Should we push more ads now?
Not yet — but soon. Raising the budget now buys more installs into a funnel that converts 5% with unknown trial→paid. Keep €20/day for 6 more days (Meta also needs that time to learn the new ad). Scale only when both are true: (1) install→trial ≥ 8% on v1.0.10 and (2) first-cohort trial→paid ≥ 35%. If both hit, step to €40/day, then €80/day weekly while cost per paying user stays under ~$30.
- Oct 3–7: first campaign trials end → real trial→paid number.
- Oct 6–7: v1.0.10 verdict on install→trial (keep if ≥8%, otherwise roll back to 2–3 free scans).
- Owner-only, high leverage: enroll in Apple Small Business Program (+21% net revenue on every sale), finish EU trader status (unlocks EU stores).
- Creative: keep Lamp as control, judge the new AntiqSnap-format ad after 5–7 days; pause crock/decanter once v4 has data (they take 19% of spend at higher cost).
- Ad copy fix: current copy promises “what similar items actually SOLD for on eBay”; the app shows asking prices of similar items for sale — align wording to avoid refund/1★ risk.